The Other World: 2009

Showing posts with label 2009. Show all posts

Sep 18, 2009

SuperSlice of a Season Slices 13-16: Reflectives and Perspectives For the Stretch Run

Because I was incommunicative with the world for most of this time period, it's time to both ruminate and pontificate on times past and times future.

After 16 slices or (144 games), the Phillies are in a strong position for the postseason. At this point, it's simple math. They are 7 games up on the Marlins and 7.5 games up on the Braves with 18 games remaining. This is a large lead entering the stretch run of the season, but it is not insurmountable as recent history suggests. Let's take a look at what pieces are working and what pieces aren't as September brings shorter days and longer nights.

Positives
Chase Utley: He is the glue of the team. His steady bat production sometimes is overlooked, but with his continued .400+ OBP, it shouldn't be. Also, he's spectacular at 2nd base.
Cliff Lee: 7 wins, but more importantly 5 quality starts. He was hit around a bit, being a location and speed mixing pitcher, but his groove will continue to deepen.
Cole Hamels: Feeling comfortable as a second banana, 3-1 in September with a less than 2.5 ERA is stellar.
Carlos Ruiz: Great pitch caller and handler of pitchers. He has also upped his OPS+ to above 100.
Joe Blanton: The so-called innings eater of the rotation still has a greater than 7 K/IP. Only one non-quality start since the beginning of July.
Unassisted Triple Plays: Eric Bruntlett, send your uniform to the Hall of Fame!
Jimmy Rollin's Fielding: Only 5 errors as a SS all year with some heads-up play. One DP he turned with going to third base for the second out was indicative of his field awareness.
Jamie Moyer as a Reliever and Spot Starter: It rains, he appears, he dominates.
Selling Out the Ballpark: 3.2 million fans and counting and I can sense them all screaming with excitement.
Power and More Power: 205 HR and .450 SLG as a team.
Ben Francisco: The right handed spark off the bench that was lacking earlier. Not a great player, but has a .520 SLG.
Pedro Martinez: Quite a change-up he has! 5-0 in 7 starts.
The Prodigal Son Returns: Brett Myers is a bullpen ace? He may take over the closer's role before all is said and done.

Negatives
Raul Ibanez: very streaky player needs to turn around when the stretch run and postseason arrive
Brad Lidge: he has a 7.18 ERA and 30 Saves, how can this be?
Ryan Madson: Great set-up man, but wilts under the 9th inning spotlight
Offensive cohesiveness: There are days when the hits are scattered, and there are other days when they are not. Crooked numbers are good to see. Starting with the Giants series earlier, there were few games in which the Phillies scored more than 4 runs over a 15 game stretch or so.
Pedro Feliz: He is playing at his career average, but he needs to show more.
Matt Stairs: one grand slam not withstanding, he had been horrific with 26 straight hitless ABs
Jayson Werth's Fielding: This guy is a threat at the plate. 34 HRs is an amazing total. Plus he has patience and can work a count. Sometimes it seems he loses focus in the field, letting a groundball go through him or being indecisive about where to throw the ball. It's laser focus time.
Losing Trap Series: They got swept by Houston 4 straight. This is a below .500 team, there is no reason for this to happen except shoddy play and a leaky bullpen. These issues must be resolved before October anyway. These are not the 2005 Astros.
Situational hitting: Runner on third, less than two outs, get the run anyway you can. All players have heard this a million times.
Injuries: Romero, Condrey, Eyre, Park, Happ: All fill roles that could be considered integral. Luckily, the team has some pitching depth this year.

The remaining schedule will allow the Phillies to thrive if they allow they play their game, bludgeon the opponents with power and use the starting pitching to put them to sleep before the bullpen sets everyone's teeth on edge.

Here are the keys to each of the series.

@ATL-First, hope that Chipper Jones remains slumpy and/or injured. He enjoys a little too much ripping the Phils. They have to solve Derek Lowe and win a pitching duel against Jair Jurrjens or Javier Vazquez. The Braves' strength is their pitching; don't let the hitting beat you, especially the new Mark Lemke (Martin Prado).

@FLA-Neutralize the potential start that Josh Johnson makes. Tuesday's a doubleheader day. The starting pitching depth of the Phillies should be the difference. Kendrick should thrive in the spacious Marlins stadium. Speaking of stadiums, do not complain if a HR is taken away by dimensions! Adjust and run with it.

@MIL: Take advantage of the weak starting pitching (Parra, Bush, Suppan, all righties) in the first few innings and then hold on.

HOU: Don't make it a revenge series. Win 2 of 3 with some Ben Francisco help against Wandy Rodriguez.

FLA: I hope this series is unnecessary in the scheme of things.

Aug 14, 2009

Slice of a Season: Part 12 of 18, Abbreviated

This is abbreviated due to vacation. Posts will be sporadic for the next 10 days.

Slice of a Season: 2009, Slice 12
Slice Record: 3-6

Cumulative Record: 61-47

Standing at Slice's End: 5.0 games ahead of the Marlins

Opponents that hurt the Phillies: Giants, Marlins

Opponents that helped the Phillies: Rockies

Wins to Remember:: Cliff Lee's debut, beating the Giants 5-1 on July 31
Losses to spill milk over: Losing 7-3 to the Giants on August 2nd (I was there, it was ugly, at some point I'll post some photos), losing 3-2 to the Marlins on August 7 (because the Phillies should win on my birthday)
Bats do help in general: When facing Jason Hammel
But bats do not help, only luck does : When facing Tim Lincecum
New Nemesis Alert:
In your face HR of the year so far:Chase Utley hitting one off Jonathan Sanchez after a few pitches after a pitch went over his head

Hitting Heroes: Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino,

Need Adjustments: bench, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley

Fire Starters on the Mound: Brad Lidge, Cole Hamels

Holding the Fort Down: Cliff Lee,Joe Blanton, JA Happ, Scott Eyre

Jul 30, 2009

Slice of a Season: Part 11 of 18 and the trade

The trade deadline has loomed large, almost larger than the sizzling team performance through this month of July.

Slice of a Season: 2009, Slice 11
Slice Record: 6-3
Cumulative Record: 58-41
Standing at Slice's End: 6.0 games ahead of the Marlins
Opponents that hurt the Phillies: NONE
Opponents that helped the Phillies: Diamondpacks, Padres, Cardinals
Wins to Remember: Beating St. Louis 14-6 on July 25th (the full awakening of Rollins), beating Arizona 4-3 on July 28th (wearing down the ace)
Loss to spill milk over: losing 10-5 vs. the Cubs on July 22 (the end of the winning streak,nothing lasts forever
Bats do help in general: When facing Yusmeiro Petit
New Nemesis Alert:Matt Holliday, he must like the NL and Mark Reynolds
Sent back to DL heaven: Chad Durbin, JC Romero, Clay Condrey: all relief pitchers, it's a good thing they've added depth.
I'm worth more than Roy Halladay if salaries and age are included: the combined worth of JA Happ, Kyle Drabek, and Dominic Brown
There's no place like outside Philly: Still 31-15 on the road
Hitting Heroes: Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Chase Utley
Need Adjustments: Carlos Ruiz, Eric Bruntlett,
Fire Starters on the Mound: Brad Lidge, JA Happ
Holding the Fort Down: Cole Hamels,Joe Blanton

The Phillies continued their winning ways without a day off during this time period, finishing off the Cubs, Cardinals, and Diamondbacks with series wins. The good thing about their setbacks is that there were no heartbreaking losses. They deserved the three losses they got. And their most impressive offensive performance (though it wasn't reflected in the number of runs) was limiting Dan Haren to 5 innings with 117 pitches, tying his season low appearance length.

The big news, of course, is the TRADE. Roy Halladay slipped through their grasp, but they did pick up the reigning 2008 Cy Young award winner. Let's break it down.

Coming to the Phillies:

Cliff Lee (LHP, formerly of the Indians): An above average pitcher from 2005-2006, he fell apart in 2007, earning a trip to the minor leagues. This is the risk the Phillies are taking with Lee. Hopefully, this 2007 version of Lee doesn't make an appearance for the rest of this year or 2010. On the plus side, they're paying him no more than they paid Adam Eaton during his horrific stint in Philly.

Since his return, Lee has turned into one of five best pitchers in baseball. In 2008, he led the AL in wins, ERA+ (175, 75% better than league average),HR/9 (0.5), and BB/9 (1.4). In 2009, though his record (7-9)has been a victim of the Indian's poor run support for him, he still has sported a 143 ERA+.

He has 4 pitches he controls: fastball, cutter, curve, and change all with varying speeds and movements. I expect he will succeed in Philly, with a slightly elevated HR rate and better won-loss record.

Ben Francisco: OF (formerly of the Indians): Francisco is a versatile outfielder who can play CF or the corners. His bat translates well, especially as a fill-in/4th outfielder role he will be having with the Phillies. He will replace John Mayberry, Jr in this role, representing an upgrade. Francisco is a league-average hitter (96 OPS+ this year) with plus power and speed, capable of hitting 15+ HRs and having 15+ SBs with regular at-bats. None of his skills are extraordinary, but a right-handed bat off the bench who can make strong contact is welcome.

More on the prospects the Phillies gave up later.

Jul 22, 2009

Slice of a Season: Part 10 of 18

One Worth Remembering!

Slice of a Season: 2009, Slice 10
Slice Record: 9-0
Cumulative Record: 52-38
Standing at Slice's End: 6.5 games ahead of the Braves
Opponents that hurt the Phillies: NONE
Opponents that helped the Phillies: Reds, Pirates, Marlins, Cubs
Wins to Remember: Beating Pittsburgh 8-7 with a 5 run rally in the 9th, the day before the All-Star Break (Ryan Howard ties it with a 3run HR, Paul Bako hits the GW single),JA Happ shutting out the Marlins on July 19th
Losses to spill milk over: NONE
Bats do help in general: And they are potent: over .790 team OPS for the season, first in HRs and runs, there are very few complaints about the lineup
New Nemesis Alert:Garrett Jones
Phillies All-Star Report: Contributed to yet another NL loss, the only blemish of the slice...who needs home-field advantage anyway?
Welcome back from DL heaven: Scott Eyre, Clay Condrey
You have not earned a rose, go to Lehigh Valley: Tyler Walker
Team Domination: Jamie Moyer is now 13-2 in his career against Florida with a 2.83 ERA
The new K prince: Joe Blanton, now up to 7.8 K/9
Here's a random point: Raul Ibanez is diminished by no platoon advantage, showing a reverse split with 1.066 OPS against lefties, creating a false sense of security for those LOOGYs.
Welcome to the club of saves that should not be: Chad Durbin with a save in a 10-1 win
Who was that at a press conference?: That looked like Pedro Martinez to rehab back to the rotation, good move?
Hitting Heroes: Ryan Howard Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins
Need Adjustments: Jayson Werth, John Mayberry, Eric Bruntlett
Fire Starters on the Mound: Ryan Madson (against Florida), Brad Lidge (still hard to coax a perfect inning from him)...this is only quibbling this time.
Holding the Fort Down: J.A Happ, Joe Blanton , Scott Eyre, Rodrigo Lopez

9 games in a row! (Update: streak expanded to 10 as of this writing). The offense may have been fueling this streak, but it is the pitching which has really given it direction, with 6 of the games having given up less than 2 runs. This is what the team is like hitting on all cylinders, resilient, lively, and pretty bloody good. Also, kudos to Jimmy Rollins for raising his .OPS 35 points this stretch to an almost not terrible level. But seriously, he needs to get on base and score, there's a direct correlation between his success and team success. There's a tough stretch of schedule ahead (Cardinals, Giants), so let's not get too excited as the baseballs and the Roy Halladay rumors fly. Should they trade for Mr. Halladay? or not?

Jul 10, 2009

Slice of a Season: Part 9 of 18 and Mid-Season Summary

Slice of a Season: 2009, Slice 9
Slice Record: 5-4
Cumulative Record: 43-38
Standing at Slice's End: 2 games ahead of the Marlins
Opponents that hurt the Phillies: Braves
Opponents that helped the Phillies: Mets
Wins to Remember: Beating Cincinnati 22-1 on July 6th, beating the Mets and Santana 2-0 on July 5th
Losses to spill milk over: Losing to Atlanta
Bats do help in general: When facing Jair Jurrjens
New Nemesis Alert, i.e. the new Mark Lemke?: Martin Prado
Welcome to the team: Rodrigo Lopez
Hitting Heroes: Jayson Werth, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins (his first appearance, all he needed was NY pitching)
Charlie Manuel needs to re-define contact sometimes: Is Eric Bruntlett the best right-handed contact hitter on the bench? If so, a search must be conducted.
Need Adjustments: Ryan Howard, Carlos Ruiz
Fire Starters on the Mound: Ryan Madson
Holding the Fort Down: J.A Happ, Joe Blanton

Midseason Grades

Phillies as a team: B-; all hitting for the most part, a starting pitching staff that has worn out the bullpen, and a bullpen whose anchor is not reliable, amazingly they are in first place.

Charlie Manuel as a manager: B+; he has managed hitting slumps pretty well and tends to give his players confidence even when they don't always succeed. Sometimes loyal to a fault. He doesn't have many head-scratching moves that I can recall (please enlighten me if you can)

Ruben Amaro Jr as a GM: B; still needs to replenish the bench on the right side, needs to stop listening to his players with how they would like to be used (case in point, Chan Ho Park). If the possibility is there for a blockbuster, he should jump on it. Raul Ibanez, when healthy, has been the signing of the offseason.

Player Review

There are only 5 categories: exceeded expectations, met expectations, below expectations, newcomers, no longer around to criticize because we always think we know who will and should do well and there are always surprises in both directions. If the surprises outnumber the disappointments, the team will usually be on their way up.

Exceeded Expectations

Chase Utley: Has returned from hip injury to post strongest numbers of his career thus far.
Pedro Feliz: He can walk! and his fielding has been steadily great.
Raul Ibanez: Before his injury, second to Pujols on the NL MVP charts.
Jayson Werth: July power surge has lent his numbers all-star oomph.
Shane Victorino: Team leader in runs and doubles, not just a fast singles hitter.
Matt Stairs: has turned into main option off bench, exhibiting power and patience.
JA Happ: Thrust into starting rotation and has been stellar in most starts.
Scott Eyre: More than a LOOGY, replaced Romero as a set-up guy nicely.
Clay Condrey: Everyday Clay held the fort down in April and May

Met Expectations
Carlos Ruiz: Good fielding, not great hitting catcher as his career suggests, has a hot streak in him somewhere.
Greg Dobbs: Not a top of the world pinch hitter like last year, but still a worthy one.
Chad Durbin: middle reliever who serviceably eats innings.
Ryan Madson: Settled into set-up role...not perfect, but who is?
Chan Ho Park: Expected to have +5 ERA, but not this way, another reliever ace?
Joe Blanton: league average, but his Ks portend more success
JC Romero: Back in his role after his suspension.

Below Expectations

Ryan Howard: His stats are trending the wrong direction. Should be .OPSing above .950
Jimmy Rollins: Worst leadoff hitter in the league so far, showed signs of snapping back to life
Eric Bruntlett: less than .150...not good enough to hit.
Jaime Moyer: sometimes time catches up, but he can be a 5th starter.
Cole Hamels: where's the backbreaking changeup? Inconsistent this year
Brad Lidge: 7+ ERA, >5 BB/9...closing is not easy

Newcomers (or too soon to have expectations)

John Mayberry: will be a good 4th outfielder with Ibanez back
Paul Bako: good fielding, no hit, veteran catcher
Antonio Bastardo:pleasant surprise before getting hurt
Rodrigo Lopez: can be a serviceable spot starter.
Tyler Walker: back of the pen guy, no more
Sergio Escalona: he rides the Lehigh Valley express too often to get a good read on him.

No longer around to criticize

Chris Coste (sadly)
Lou Marson:waiting for an opportunity
Miguel Cairo: didn;t offer enough
Kyle Kendrick
Andrew Carpenter
Brett Myers: injured and missed, but so mercurial he drove me nuts.
Jack Taschner: cut for better options

Here's to a successful 2nd half!

Jun 28, 2009

Abbreviated Slice of a Season: Part 8 of 18

No images for this entry/It was a dark time/And I swear it was all a dream

I have been out of the country, so I did not get to witness firsthand the carnage that the Phillies' record has undergone this past week. Home or away, the Phillies results suggested an undisciplined, broken down kind of baseball with very few bright spots. Let's review the wasteland known as slice 8.

Slice Record: 2-7
Cumulative Record: 38-34
Standing at Slice's End: Miraculously, still 1.5 games ahead of the Mets, can we say war of attrition?
Opponents that hurt the Phillies: Blue Jays, Orioles, Rays
Opponents that helped the Phillies: None
Gut-wrenching sequence heard play-by-play over the phone while on the way to the airport: Ryan Madson with one out allows a HR to Greg Zaun, then with two outs allows a single to Oscar Salazar and a HR to Brian Roberts to blow a 5-3 lead in the 9th on June 20th
Most spirited loss ruined by an ex-Phillie back-up catcher:Rod Barajas wrecking hopes and dreams as he did when he was on the Phillies (Rod Barajas hitting a HR? Really??)
Bats would help when facing:Jeremy Guthrie...Jeremy Guthrie?? Really?????
Ex-Phillies haunting:Besides Barajas, Pat Burrell showed up just in time this year to beat the Phillies.
Overlooked positive pitching performance:Joe Blanton, 7 IP, 2 R, 10 K against Tampa
Nice bullpen breather:JA Happ with a dominant complete game shutout
On the shelf:Condrey, Bastardo, maybe Park?
I hope you're back for real:Brad Lidge
Isn't shortstop supposed to be a strong position?:Jimmy Rollins needs to hit or walk or something, replacing him with Eric Bruntlet for 3 days or so won't right anything.
The bullpen is not a retirement home:but it will make your arm fall off before your time.

I don't have much to add since I only saw parts of 3 games this time. The lineup needs shuffling (Rollins needs to be dropped to 7th or 8th in the order), but the struggling is a team-wide affliction from game to game. Poor starting pitching has worn out the effecive relievers and overexposed the ineffective ones. Reinforcements are needed for the dog days of summer. Ruben Amaro? Are you there? I know you've been searching for someone out there.

5-12 in Interleague (with one game remaining)...again, they were 4-11 last year. The end of June can't come soon enough.

Jun 20, 2009

Slice of a Season: Part 7 of 18

Home field advantage??
Slice of a Season: 2009, Slice 7
Slice Record: 4-5
Cumulative Record: 36-27
Standing at Slice's End: 3 games ahead of the Mets
Opponents that hurt the Phillies: Red Sox, Blue Jays
Opponents that helped the Phillies: Mets
Wins to Remember: Defeating the Dodgers and ex-Phillie Randy Wold 7-2 on June 7,Defeating the Mets 5-4 in 11 on June 10th and again in extra innings 6-3 on June 12th.
Losses to spill milk over: extra inning losses abound:5-2 against Boston on June 12th and 8-3 against Toronto on June 16th
Interesting stat: The Phillies have a .249 Avg at home and only 41 HR compared to .273 AVG away with 51 HRs.
Bats do help in general: When facing Scott Richmond and Jon Lester
Old Nemesis Sighting: Mike Lowell
Ex-Phillie Haunting Spotted: Was that the ghost of Scott Rolen, circa 2001? and Rod Barajas...really?
Johan Santana is not invincible, the Phillies showed the world: 4 HR in Citi Field says so
For want of a lefty the inning was lost, for lack of a consistent bullpen, the game was lost: To Scott Eyre and Brad Lidge...come back and pitch well.
Welcome to the team: Paul Bako and Tyler Walker
A low outside breaking ball is not the ideal pitch to swing at: Ryan Howard
The team needs an infusion of: The Bull's BBQ at home; they need some fire.
Suprising success story with a small sample size:: Chan Ho Park
Hitting Heroes: Jayson Werth, Pedro Feliz, Chase Utley
Need Adjustments: Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Greg Dobbs and other benchmates
Fire Starters on the Mound: Jack Taschner,Clay Condrey, Chad Durbin, Jaime Moyer
Holding the Fort Down: Ryan Madson (mostly), Joe Blanton, Cole Hamels

I'm too frustrated right now to write a full summary (this is why I should write these on time, when it doesn't look as bad for the Phillies). They may be in first place, but there is something intangible missing beyond the statistics. It's not complacency or a lack of resilience...more a lack of focus that causes errors of omission rather than commission. The prime example was when Marco Scutaro of the Blue Jays ended up on second after a walk....no one paid attention to him running? Not even the dugout?

The hitting is robust, but not sustainable unless there is a change in execution. They have a less than .200 AVG with runners in scoring position over the last 10 days. Losing Raul Ibanez has left the outfield short both a great hitter (so far) and a decent glove. Even if Ibanez regressed to his career averages for the remainder of the season, he would be an improvement over John Mayberry (too inexperienced) or Matt Stairs (can't handle everyday in his age and condition). Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins need to re-think their approaches; that's the only nice way to say it.

In the long run, the lack of viable starters can be the downfall. Antonio Bastardo is nice as a stop gap, but probably can only throw 120-140 innings before wearing down. The summer heat may also affect J.A. Happ. Joe Blanton continues to improve upon his numbers. The bullpen is useless right now, can't hold leads or deficits even. Losing Scott Eyre was worse than losing Brad Lidge. It's clear Clay Condrey and Chad Durbin are starting to wear out. Jack Taschner has not been a net positive addition, and JC Romero is still working out the post-suspension kinks.... Oh, and in general, stop walking lead off hitters everyone.

Ok, deep breath, still in first, it's time to regroup...the rest of the Toronto series, followed by Baltimore and more interleague intrigue. Let's look forward now.

Jun 11, 2009

Slice of a Season: Part 6 of 18

Maybe it's better if I don't pitch to contact: Joe Blanton

Welcome to the big leagues: Antonio Bastardo
Hitting Heroes: Raul Ibanez, Carlos Ruiz, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley
Need Adjustments: Jayson Werth, Jimmy Rollins, Greg Dobbs and other benchmates
Fire Starters on the Mound: Brad Lidge, Chad Durbin, Brad Lidge...again
Holding the Fort Down: Ryan Madson, J.A. Happ, Jamie Moyer, Antonio Bastardo, Joe Blanton

This was definitely a feel-good part of the season. With a season-high 7 wins in a row, dispatching of the Nationals and Padres with a flick of the bats and flashing of the leather, the Phillies are starting to come into their own. All pistons aren't working together yet to drive this engine, but at least the season is moving forward and not backward.

The hitters we know about. There is only so many superlatives to be given to a lineup with a greater than .800 OPS after 1/3 of the season has passed. Raul Ibanez (again!) has continued to be incredible, he's probably been the 2nd most valuable player in the NL thus far. Carlos Ruiz has a .410 OBP and everyone has an OPS above 100 except Jimmy Rollins. He must not hit lead off until he learns not to pop up the first pitch,

The pitching has a new face and it is a 23 year old lefty by the name of Antonio Bastardo, the newest addition to the "Lefty Court"
Cole Hamels: The King
Jaime Moyer: The Wise Counselor
JA Happ: The Jousting Knight
Antonio Bastardo: The Heir
Scott Eyre: The Master of Coin
Jack Tashner: The Forgotten Lord
JC Romero: The Prodigal Prince

Brad Lidge still has a 7.27 ERA and went to the DL after his last appearance, but Joe Blanton is now averaging 8.1 K/9,the same as Hamels. That's some swinging and missing. The team ERA has finally edged below 5.

Let's continue on the positive side by getting the split with the Dodgers (which has already happened as of this writing), facing down the Mets, and then heading to the dark side (the American League) for most of the rest of the month.

May 29, 2009

Slice of a Season: Part 5 of 18

JA Happ

It was yet another uneven slice of the season with really few performances to take note. Cole Hamels is back (long live King Cole!), pitching 6 innings in both starts with a 6:1 K:B ratio and less than 1.2 WHIP. Ibanez is hitting better than Albert Pujols; his OPS is still a stratospheric value of 1.109, now with more home run goodness. JA Happ pitched remarkably well in the pressure cooker of Yankee Stadium 3; allowing only 2 runs (with no walks) in 6 innings to that lineup. And most surprisingly of all, Joe Blanton struck out 11 in 7 innings in one start.

The hitting is still keeping pace overall with an .OPS of .790 during this time period, but it seems there are cracks in the aura. Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino need to get on base more, period. They both have .OBP below .330 (with Rollins closer to .280). This is unacceptable in the long run; move them down in the order to maximize the power of Utley, Howard, and Ibanez: the lefty brigade. Jayson Werth has slumped, flailing at breaking stuff outside and bailing on fastballs inside; he's like Burrell when he was slumping. Does he need a temporary platoon partner? Pedro Feliz has been the most pleasant surprise of the season so far, upping his walk rate by 50% and hitting over .400 with RISP.

Brad Lidge is worrisome still. The home runs, the high walk rate, the higher contact % (over 1.000 OPS against) all hint at a deeper problem. His velocity is there, but he can;t get the fastball over and his slider can be avoided if there are less than two strikes. It's kind of Manuel to show loyalty, but give him a mental break for a couple weeks; Ryan Madson is a viable alternative. And Clay Condrey is...'nobody expects Everyday Clay Condrey'...he is the stealth good reliever so far.

It was just reported that Brett Myers might have hip surgery (just as the good Brett Myers decided to start pitching). Time to bring on the trade rumors or welcome Kyle Kendrick, Chan Ho Park, Andrew Carpenter, or Carlos Carrasco to the rotation.

They won two series on the road against over .500 teams and lost a series at home against an under .500 team. They're batting stats are also significantly worse at CBP; this does not trend with previous years. There's something intangible that is missing for the home struggles.

The Mets are hurt, the Braves continue to annoy, it's the time of the year to make a move. There is no try,there is only play ball.

May 20, 2009

Slice of a Season: Part 4 of 18

Jayson Werth has turned into a legitimate right handed force, complementing the left handed hitting lineup nicely.
Raul Ibanez has played like an MVP candidate so far this season, leading the league in total bases and OPS.
Ryan Howard is striking out less, making less errors, has decent stats, and is primed for a mid-summer power surge.
Brett Myers and Cole Hamels have both pitched two quality starts in a row.
Ryan Madson's changeup is whiff-magnetic.
Clay Condrey, 7th inning man...what a revelation.

Unfortunately, the team still has a balance of negativity to draw upon; this only means more opportunities for improvement.

Jimmy Rollins has a lower OPS from the leadoff spot than the Phillies' ninth position in the lineup.
This is grievously poor because the pinch hitters and bench for the Phillies have been especially feeble this year. (Small Sample Size Alert!) Greg Dobbs has a negative OPS+ relative to the league, which I didn't think was mathematically possible (an OPS+ of 100 is considered average).
Brad Lidge needs to stop giving up runs and baserunners; a WHIP of 1.89 and a BB/9 of over 4 will not cut it as a closer.
Jaime Moyer and Joe Blanton need to stop runners from getting on base. For Moyer, he is allowing nearly 3 HR/9 IP. It's nearly a 17% HR/FB percentage, which is way above normal.
Chase Utley looks hurt; I don't want to think about it or dream about it. He needs to play at 100%.

The foundation is there, it would be nice to beat the Mets and Braves head-to-head to establish ultimate authority over the division. It would be nicer to start winning at home and give the fans what they always want to see, a winner. We are now at the point of the season where slumps are not fluky anymore. The Phillies are well-positioned to remain in the race and bash opposing pitching staffs back to the bullpen purgatory.

May 11, 2009

Slice of a Season: Part 3 of 18

Since the baseball season is long (a marathon, not a sprint they always say). Let's keep track of the Phillies 2009 season in digestible bites. A weekly wrap-up doesn't give justice to the ups and downs that a team goes through because it's so uneven.Therefore, I've decided to summarize the season in 9 game swaths, the equivalent of 3 series, barring rainouts and schedule unevenness. Plus, 9*18=162...I like even numbers.

Slice of a Season: 2009, Slice 3
Slice Record: 5-4
Cumulative Record: 15-12
Standing at Slice's End: 0.5 games ahead the surging Metropolitans
Opponents that hurt the Phillies: Mets, weather
Opponents that helped the Phillies: Cardinals, Nationals (every loss hurts though)
Wins to Remember: Beating the Braves 10-6 on May 8 (Hamels goes more than 5 innings!). Beating the Cardinals 6-1 on May 4 (Quality start from Blanton!)
Loss to spill milk over: Losing 1-0 against the Mets on May 6. (the defense lost the game
It helps when they say your job is on the line: Chan Ho Park with 6 consecutive scoreless innings
Bats do help in general: When facing Scott Olsen
If only the Phillies traded 4 non-star prospects for him, then we wouldn't have to dread games against him: Johan Santana
Nemesis Alert: Mike Pelfrey
Return from the houses in the boondocks: Cole Hamels, pitching a total start
Sometimes it's better to act than to think: Jayson Werth (though the rest of the slice was brilliant)
Hitting Heroes: Chase Utley, Raul Ibanez, Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth
Need Adjustments: Jimmy Rollins, Pedro Feliz, the catchers, the bench
Fire Starters on the Mound: Brad Lidge, Jamie Moyer, Joe Blanton
Holding the Fort Down: Clay Condrey, Ryan Madson, Chad Durbin, J.A. Happ

Brett Myers is an apt picture for this slice, because like their mercurial, temperamental pitcher, they don't yet have a recipe for sustained success this season. Starting pitching with an ERA above 7, a bullpen with an aching, struggling closer, and a lineup lacking production from both the top and bottom is a mix of mediocrity.

Jimmy Rollins will not hit .400 this month as he claimed once; I'm hoping his OPS surpasses that mark. Something seems wrong with his swing, especially from the right side; his approach at the plate when he leads off an inning is also lacking. Victorino has not been much better, though he at least shows flashes of good contact. The middle of the lineup is holding the fort down. Kudos to Werth for raising his OPS above .950. Power and patience with contact is a strong combination for success. The bench has not done anything positive in awhile.

There is definitely something physically wrong with Lidge; it seems like the same knee that plagued him in 2006-2007, and that is worrisome. Without drive there is no bite on the slider. Madson, Happ, Condrey, and Durbin are thriving, though they are not helped by having to pitch 3-4 innings per night. Happ should probably replace Park in the rotation, one great start from Park not withstanding. Control and HRs allowed, as always, are the problems of struggling pitching staff. Hamels at least has shown some signs of turning it around. The league, unfortunately, is hitting Moyer. A 5.41 ERA is still not acceptable at this point of the season.

They also need to take advantage of their homepark. The fans love them. Crashburn Alley loves them. Play loose, but don't play without mental focus. Standings are still fluid, so let's ride that river raft.

Apr 30, 2009

Slice of a Season: Part 2 of 18

Slice of a Season: 2009, Slice 2

Slice Record: 6-3

Cumulative Record: 10-8
Standing at Slice's End: 0.5 games behind suddenly reeling Marlins
Opponents that hurt the Phillies: Brewers, Padres

Opponents that helped the Phillies: Marlins, Nationals
Wins to Remember: Scoring 7 runs in the 9th to defeat the Braves 7-3 on April 24, 2009. Recovering from 2 different 4 run deficits with 2 grand slams to win 13-11 against the Nationals on April 27, 2009.
Loss to spill milk over: Giving up 4 runs in the 9th to lose to Padres 8-5 on April 18, 2009.

Nobody's perfect: But Brad Lidge was close for awhile

Bats do help: When facing Dave Bush (no-hit the Phillies until the 8th inning) and Braden Looper

New favorite opposing pitcher: Cody Ross, outfielder, Marlins

Nemesis Alert: Josh Johnson

Needs a 4 leaf clover and a rabbit's foot: Cole Hamels

Hitting Heroes: Chase Utley, Raul Ibanez, Ryan Howard, Pedro Feliz, Shane Victorino
Need Adjustments: Jimmy Rollins, Chris Coste, Greg Dobbs
Fire Starters on the Mound: Brett Myers, Joe Blanton, Scott Eyre
Holding the Fort Down: Clay Condrey, Ryan Madson, Chad Durbin, Jaimie Moyer

Let's call them the April comeback kids. The wins at Florida and against Washington were especially noteworthy, showing all you need is a decent bullpen and really potent bats to compete in the NL East. Ibanez and Utley are tearing up the league right now with Ibanez leading the league in .SLG and total bases. Feliz is drawing walks and flashing power and Howard's strikeout rate has declined since last year. On top of that production, Matt Stairs is the man, and I won't hear anyone else say otherwise. The team still has an .OPS above .800; that is really, really good. J-Roll...where hast thou gone?.....first base is but 90 feet away for you to tend to.

The pitching has improved enough to not be a complete liability. Hamels has shown flashes of returning to form, but a Prince Fielder line drive to the shoulder probably is not one of the top 100 feelings in the world. Myers is volatile like an organic solvent, and Blanton has shown himself to be hittable (14.6 H/9 IP). The middle bullpen has been solid with Condrey, "Everyday" Durbin, and Madson holding the opponents down until the offense decides to score after inning 7. It would be nice if the team ERA dropped below 5 at some point this season.

Overall, sweeping the Marlins in Florida was a great way to punctuate April, and allows them to clinch a winning April record for the second straight year. Game on, division rivals, game on. The race has truly begun.

A peek ahead: The conclusion of the Nationals series, the first and second series against the Mets, and an encounter with the Cardinals

Apr 21, 2009

Slice of a Season: Part 1 of 18

Standing at Slice's End: 4 games behind 8-1 Marlins

Opponents that hurt the Phillies: Braves, Padres, weather

Opponents that helped the Phillies: Rockies

Ignominious First: Allowing Washington to win their first game of the season

Nemesis Alert: Derek Lowe

Win to Remember: Scoring 8 runs in the 7th and one in the 8th to defeat the Braves 12-11 on April 8, 2009

Loss to spill milk over: Losing 8-7 to the Padres on April 17, blowing 7-1 lead after 4 innings

Hitting Heroes: Chase Utley, Raul Ibanez, Ryan Howard

Need Adjustments: Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Chris Coste

Fire Starters on the Mound: Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton, Chan Ho Park

Holding the Fort Down: Clay Condrey, Scott Eyre, J.A. Happ

The first slice of the season breaks down simply. When the hitting was on, the pitching was not. And the pitching was never really on during this time period. When your team ERA is approaching 7 and the opponent's BA allowed is .300, it is difficult to consistently win ballgames. Three straight games of allowing exactly 8 runs marked the end of the time period (Update: The streak was extended to 4 straight games). The offense has shown flashes of power and capability. They have performed with an .OPS of nearly .800. However, the top of the lineup is not getting on base enough to take advantage of the healed Utley, slimmer Howard, and focused Ibanez. Jayson Werth also needs to perform well to avoid having three lefties in a row in the middle of the lineup for late-game situations.

A peek ahead: The rest of the series with the Padres, a series with Milwaukee, a series with the 1st place Marlins

Please let me know how to improve this feature and make it more comprehensive. Also, please suggest categories to add.

Apr 2, 2009

Phive Days of Phillies: Day 2-Heart

In preparation for the upcoming 2009 season breathing down the necks of the world, I will feature some aspect of the Phillies that can ultimately lead to a successful season.

Let's go with something a little more ambiguous and undefinable today since I am feeling a little undefined myself . What can be considered heart? We all know we "gotta have it" as sung by the ballplayers in "Damn Yankees." We know that it's a certain something that goes beyond talent and inculcates itself into a player's persona.

Hearts must radiate; they must pump vigorously to feed the rest of the organs with nourishment. Is it ability to perform under pressure? Is it a determination? Is it grind the bat and ball into your hands until enough friction is created to heat a Winnebago? Is it an attitude?

I think what heart is, in the sense I will describe, is the baseball lifeforce. This is in what the sense of the game transpires, the need to construct each play as they were intended, with mental focus and drive and physical ability.

How does one measure heart? Well, strictly, you can't. And it isn't about 100% vs. 110% effort, it is the bloodline of baseball coursing through the generations.

The Phillies' heart levels are listed below.

Miles and Miles of Heart: Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Jaime Moyer

Franklin Institute Sized Heart: Greg Dobbs, Cole Hamels, Ryan Madson, Chad Durbin, Chris Coste

Fiery Thunderhorse Heart: Brett Myers, Brad Lidge, Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth

Wild Hearts Never Broken: Ryan Howard, Pedro Feliz, Carlos Ruiz, Matt Stairs, Joe Blanton

New Adrenaline Inspired Heart: Raul Ibanez, Chan Ho Park, Jack Taschner, J.A. Happ

Outsized Heart: Scott Eyre, Eric Bruntlett, Clay Condrey

Apr 1, 2009

Phive Days of Phillies: Day 1-Power

In preparation for the upcoming 2009 season breathing down the necks of the world, I will feature some aspect of the Phillies that can ultimately lead to a successful season.

The power of the Phillies is evident. Last year, they had a .438 SLG, ranked 2nd in the NL, and they also hit 214 HR, 1st in the NL. Four players hit 20 or more home runs, four players hit 30 or more doubles,and three players had an AB/HR ratio less than 20.

Of these players from last year, Pat Burrell waved a fond farewell to the City of Brotherly Love and made a snowbird's trek to Tampa to rest his foot for all 9 innings per game as a DH. His replacement is Raul Ibanez, a 36 year old lefty, who hopefully has enough juice to add some horsepower to the Phillies 8 cylinder engine.

The individual ratings on the power scale(which I just made up) are the following:

Quasar: Ryan Howard-Like the collision of galaxies billions of light years away, Howard can illuminate the night sky with a rain of blinding flashes of light that can barely be identified as a baseball. He had 48 HR, .543 SLG, and a 12.7 HR/AB ratio. He also led the league in opposite field HRs, showing power to every field in every park. He should be a lock for 40 HRs and many demoralizing strikeouts...with immense power.

Supernova: Chase Utley-His game is versatile and his power is evident. With stellar blasts of energy and excitement, he burns through pitchers' meager offerings. He hit 33 HR and 41 2B last year. Expect more of the same as his surgically repaired hip will allow him to pivot with the same immense burst as the first half of 2008.

Volcanic Eruption: Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez-Both corner outfielders with enough power to wreak havoc on the unsuspecting opponent populace. Both had .475+ SLG with 20+HR. They will drive in runs and they will make the other team's eat ash as yet another rally is extended by the rumblings of their power.

Sky Cannon: Matt Stairs-One swing, one glorious trip to the stratosphere, one trip around the bases. Stairs cemented his place in Phillies lore with the HR off Broxton in game 5 of the 2008 NLCS. His swing from the heels and make contact with any fastball works well as a pinch hitter off the bench. Lo, the poor two-seamer that enters his path of destruction.

Particle Accelerator: Shane Victorino and Jimmy Rollins-Quickness defines them, but when they get their subparticles to collision velocity, enormous power can result. It's just that their focus is not there. Both had 8+ triples, 10+ HR, and .430+ SLG, showing that speed also brings power to the table. They will advance further by harnessing the field and using footspeed and batspeed to power the way.

Corvette Engine: Greg Dobbs-Only obstacles in the roadway (not enough playing time) prevent him from reaching the top capability for the whole season. But with 9 HR in 226 AB and a .491 SLG, maximum effort was attained on each drive. The pistons are always primed and ready to overcome the friction of a right handed pitcher.

Ocean Cruiser: Pedro Feliz and Chris Coste: Can hit HR at a fairly good clip (9 HR in 274 AB for Coste and 14 HR in 425 AB). For them, it will seem like nothing is happening in the power department for weeks at a time, and then the engines are turned on to bypass the treacherous currents of opposing pitchers. Pop-ups and dead periods are the price to pay for manning such an unwieldy vessel.

Living Room Light: Carlos Ruiz and Eric Bruntlett: No power to speak of, but will help the team in other ways. Can hit the occasional HR to provide dim glow over stadium crowd.

Mar 28, 2009

Fantasy Baseball Rankings VIII: Wrap-up and Summary

It hope this series of rankings has given you some insight into what I'm thinking when rating players at various positions. The key then during a draft is to maximize your production and value at each spot on your roster. You can end up with some great players, but if you draft them at the supposed wrong spot (for example, taking Santana overall #1), you hurt your team through the loss of opportunity cost for players with supposed higher value. This even applies in the middle of drafts (especially with regard to closers and one category players such as Willy Taveras).

One of the important aspects to consider is whether the player you target will be available during your next pick. You will know this by keeping track of other teams' positional and categorical needs. This is also where tiers come into play. For example, if you are targeting a shortstop within the next couple of picks, and Rafael Furcal is your only remaining shortstop in the highest remaining tier, pick him if the teams picking after you already have their shortstops. This is not 100% foolproof because some people (myself included) will take a pick deemed to be a "great value" even if the position is already filled. The UTIL spot is also a consideration in this regard.
If you want to discuss any fantasy baseball strategy, please leave a comment or e-mail me at powerdgr19@gmail.com. I like to hear other peoples's insights and differences of opinion. Because at the end, this is what this all is, educated guesses and opinions. I am just an experienced amateur, like everyone else with a set goal in mind for each draft.

My first draft is Sunday. Wish me luck!

Check the "rankings" label on the sidebar to see all comments together and the "draft" label for other drafting comments.

Mar 27, 2009

Fantasy Baseball Rankings VII: Quick Hits- Third Basemen and DHs

This is the last installment of rankings for this season. I ran out of time to make the detailed charts since my first draft is this Sunday.

Third base is a surprisingly shallow position at the top end. There are not many 4-5 category contributors compared to outfield or first base. It also a position where there are many players with multiple-position eligibility (i.e. Miguel Cabrera, Jorge Cantu listed in other rankings). After each player's name is their "strength" categories and where I expect them to be drafted.

Tier 1

David Wright (HR, RBI, R, AVG, SB) (1st round)

Tier 2

Alex Rodriguez (HR, RBI, R, AVG, SB) (3rd-4th round because of injury)

Chipper Jones (AVG, RBI, R) (4th-6th round)

Aramis Ramirez (R, HR, RBI) (4th-6th round)

Evan Longoria (R, HR, RBI (3rd-5th round)

Tier 3

Ryan Zimmerman (R, HR, RBI) (6th-10th round)

Chone Figgins (R, SB) (6th-8th round)

Adrian Beltre (HR) (8th-12th round)

Michael Young (R, AVG) (4th- 6th round) (SS eligibility)

Mike Lowell (HR, RBI) (6th-10th round)

Edwin Encarnacion (HR) (8th-12th round)

Garrett Atkins (HR, RBI) (4th-8th round)

Alex Gordon (R, HR, RBI) (8th round-12th round)

Tier 4

Scott Rolen (injury risk)

Troy Glaus (injured)

Mark Reynolds (200 K, low AVG)

Casey Blake (20 HR power)

Pablo Sandoval (doesn't walk, C eligibility)

Mark DeRosa (career best at age 33, 2B eligibility)

Melvin Mora (RBI)

DHs are players I might have forgotten about previously because they slot into UTIL only (in most cases). Here's the quick list of relevant DHs to consider drafting. All of their main contributions are in power categories.

David Ortiz (4th-8th round)
Jim Thome (10th-14th round)
Jason Giambi (10th-14th round)
Travis Hafner (10th-14th round)
Billy Butler (14th-18th round)
Gary Sheffield (14th-18th round)

Mar 26, 2009

Fantasy Baseball Rankings VI: Quick Hits-Starting Pitchers

Below is my fantasy rankings for starting pitchers. The tiers refer to similar groupings of players. I haven't specified rankings within the tiers...that I leave up to the individual drafter. Starting pitching has a lot of similarly projected players within their midsts. Also, there is a much higher risk of injury compared with other positions. There are three schools of thought when drafting starting pitchers:

1) Hoard the aces: Draft two or more guys who you consider an ace by choosing two starting pitchers in your first 4 picks. It is risky in that pitching has more depth than other positions and when you choose pitchers so early, you sacrifice for the chance to draft real stars at other, less deep positions. I've used this in a head-to-head league before.

2) Apply the anchor: Get one "ace" and then draft a lot of pitchers in the middle to late rounds. I tend to use this strategy most often. I like the comfort of having a guy who gives you consistent stats from year to year (or at least should without an unanticipated falling apart or injury).

3) Skip the pitching until round 8 or later. This is the preferred strategy for head-to-head leagues especially because pitching stats, in general, have more fluctuation from week to week. This can also be used to advantage in rotisserie leagues because you can have 3-4 solid starters drafted in rounds 8-14, while filling in the rest of the staff with closers and middle relievers.

Typically, the only pitchers to draft as aces are those listed in tier 1. Tier 2 guys have talent and can be an anchor if the all the tier 1 players are gone, but they may have some question marks . Tier 3 pitchers are middle round finds with some potential to perform just as well as tier 2 pitchers, but have other questions. Tier 4 pitchers I consider unreliable because of inconsistency or uncertainty of repeating positive performances. Tier 5 pitchers are intriguing young guys with potential who easily can be drafted at the same level as Tier 3 and 4 pitchers. I separate them out so I know who to target post-round 15. I tend to draft younger pitchers who haven't yet reached their peak near the end of drafts because if they work out, they are really good and if they dont work out, they are easily expendable. I only ranked those whom I considered to be "draftable" in a 12 team 5x5 draft. Concerns are listed in parentheses after the pitcher's name.

Tier 1 (rounds 1-4)

Roy Halladay

Brandon Webb

Tim Lincecum

Johan Santana

Jake Peavy

Cole Hamels

CC Sabathia

Tier 2 (rounds 4-8)

John Lackey (HR allowed)

Roy Oswalt (team is terrible)

Carlos Zambrano (inconsistency)

Rich Harden (injury risk)

Dan Haren (home ballpark)

Cliff Lee (regression?)

Felix Hernandez (BB/9)

James Shields

Josh Beckett (injury risk)

Daisuke Matsuzaka (BB/9)

Francisco Liriano (previous injury)

AJ Burnett (injury risk)

Tier 3 (rounds 8-14)

Ervin Santana (injured)

Justin Duchscherer (injured)

Javier Vazquez (HR allowed)

Derek Lowe (age)

Yovoni Gallardo (previous injury)

Adam Wainwright (inexperience)

Ryan Dempster (regression?)

Chad Billingsley (innings overload)

Matt Cain (HR allowed)

Erik Bedard (injury risk)

Ricky Nolasco (previous injury)

John Maine (K/BB ratio)

Brett Myers (headcase)

Scott Kazmir (BB/9 and P/IP)

Matt Garza (innings overload)

Jon Lester(innings overload)

Edison Volquez (regression?)

Zack Greinke (team)

Scott Baker (run support)

John Danks (HR/FB ratio)

Joba Chamberlain (injury risk)

Tier 4 (round 10 and above)

Joe Saunders

Jered Weaver

Jesse Litsch

Manny Parra

Chris Carpenter

Ted Lilly

Randy Johnson

Fausto Carmona

Brandon Morrow

Josh Johnson

Anibal Sanchez

Oliver Perez

Chris Young

Jaimie Moyer

Joe Blanton

Aaron Harang

Aaron Cook

Justin Verlander

Kevin Slowey

Mark Buehrle

Gavin Floyd

Chien Ming Wang

Tier 5 (round 10 and above)

Gio Gonzalez

Sean Gallagher

david Purcey

Jair Jurrjens

Todd Wellemeyer

Sean Marshall

Max Scherzer

Clayton Kershaw

Chris Volstad

Andrew Miller

Mike Pelfrey

John Lannan

Jeremy Guthrie

David Price

Johnny Cueto

Mar 23, 2009

Fantasy Baseball Rankings V: Quick Hits-Catchers and Closers

For me, normally, these are positions I wait on.

For catchers, if you're not willing to sacrfice a 4-6 round pick on McCann, Martin, or Mauer(barring continuing injury), then you might as well wait. There is serious reaching for Matt Wieters in experts' drafts. Will he be worth it? He might not even start the season with the MLB club. His talent though is undeniable. There are other catchers (Soto, Doumit) who can offer the same production, and also have a track record. Just don't hurt yourself in all the categories when you pick one. Be ready to cut them if they're not working out since a good starting catcher normally starts only 115-130 games per season, depressing their overall numbers compared to other positions. If someone emerges during the season, don't hesitate to replace a mediocrity at the position. The same type of tiering system applies as previous rankings; these are similar groupings of players based on projected stats.

Tier 1

Brian McCann

Russell Martin

Joe Mauer

Tier 2

Geovany Soto

Victor Martinez

Ryan Doumit

Tier 3

Matt Wieters

Kelly Shoppach

Tier 4

Mike Napoli

Bengie Molina

Chris Ianetta

AJ Pierzynski

Jorge Posada

Tier 5

Chris Snyder

Jarod Saltalamacchia

Dioner Navarro

For closers, I've mentioned not to draft one too early, but this doesn't mean to overlook them. Try to draft 3-4 during the draft, and maybe also a middle reliever with a high K/9 and K/BB rate (i.e. Carlos Marmol, J.J. Putz). The only considerations with closers are opportunities, effectiveness at converting opportunities, situation stability, and injury. The rest is not as important because most only pitch 60-80 innings per year, which have a miniscule effect on ERA and WHIP. Although grabbing one with a high K/9 can help in maximizing Ks (assuming you have an inning limit in your league; for head to head leagues, it doesn't matter at all).

Tier 1 (Stable Situation and Effective)

Brad Lidge

Francisco Rodriguez

Jose Valverde

Mariano Rivera

Jonathan Papelbon

Joakim Soria

Joe Nathan

Tier 2 (Stable Situation with Concerns about Effectiveness)

Matt Capps

Francisco Cordero

Jonathan Broxton

Bobby Jenks

Tier 3 (Threatened Situation but Effective with Opportunity)

Matt Lindstrom

Mike Gonzalez

Brian Wilson

Heath Bell

Huston Street

BJ Ryan

George Sherrill

Brad Ziegler

Brian Fuentes

Kerry Wood

Chad Qualls

Tier 4 (Threatened Situation with Effectiveness (including injury) Concerns)

Joel Hanrahan

Kevin Gregg

Troy Percival

Brandon Lyon

Frank Francisco

Trevor Hoffmann

Tier 5 (Unsettled Situations)

Cardinals (frontrunner: Jason Motte)

Mariners (frontrunner:???)

Middle relivers to consider

JJ Putz

Hong-Chi Kuo

Justin Masterson

Takashi Saito

Rafael Soriano

Carlos Marmol

Manny Corpas

Scott Downs

Brandon League

Chris Ray

Joey Devine

Jose Arredondo
Carlos Villanueva

Mar 22, 2009

Fantasy Baseball Rankings IV: Shortstops

Below is my fantasy rankings for shortstops. All stats are from Baseball Reference.com. The tiers refer to similar groupings of players. I haven't specified rankings within the tiers...that I leave up to the individual drafter. Please let me know your thoughts...whether you agree, disagree, think I've lost a couple of marbles while working in the lab, etc. As you can see, shortstop is deeper than expected with some combination of speed and power guys. The position also has 3 potential first round picks. I only ranked those whom I considered to be "draftable" in a 12 team 5x5 draft.

Let the presentation begin!

Name	Age	Strength Stats	Key Stats from 2008	Projected Draft Position	Comments	Tier
Hanley Ramirez	25	AVG, HR, R, SB, RBI	125 R, 33 HR, 35 SB, .400 OBP, .540 SLG	1	Consensus top 2 pick in the draft. 5 category stud because will not hit 3rd in Florida lineup	1
Jose Reyes	26	R, SB, AVG	113 R, 56 SB	1	Consensus top 4 pick in the draft. Steals are his biggest asset, but can contribute across all categories.	1
Jimmy Rollins	30	R, HR, SB	47 SB, .349 OBP, .437 SLG	1	Great asset at speed. Scores a lot of runs with Utley and Howard hitting behind him. Stats last year depressed because of ankle injury	1
Rafael Furcal	31	R, SB	36 G , 8 SB, 34 R	4-7 round	He may be overrated because he's over 30 and had injury problems last year. But with potent Dodger lineup can score 100-120 runs and steal 25-35 bases with respectable AVG and HR	2
Alexei Ramirez	27	HR, RBI	22 HR, 77 RBI, 13 SB, .475 SLG, .313 OBP	3-6 round	Free swinger with great power. Will be overdrafted based on potential. Also eligible at 2nd base	2
Stephen Drew	26	R, HR, RBI	.502 SLG, 21 HR	5-8 round	Similar in fantasy profile to Hardy and Ramirez, but his skills can portend a greater improvement for 3rd full season	2
JJ Hardy	26	HR, RBI	24 HR, .478 SLG	7-10 round	Streaky power hitter in the prime of his career who will contribute 25 HR and a decent AVG	3
Troy Tulowitzki	24	R, RBI	.332 OBP, .401 SLG	7-10 round	Extemely disappointing '08 with injury and performance. This ranking is more of a bounceback hope. Still only 24.	3
Derek Jeter	35	R, AVG	.363 OBP, .408 SLG	5-8 round	Still useful, but not for the value most people give him. Declining trend in power and speed is real.	3
Jhonny Peralta	27	R, HR, RBI	104 R, 23 HR, 89 RBI, .473 SLG	6-12 round	Power is there consistently. Place in Indians lineup will matter for other categories	3
Miguel Tejada	35	R	.314 OBP, .415 SLG, 13 HR, 66 RBI	6-12 round	Will not approach power of years past. Also, extremely slow (32 GIDP). Has lost batting eye as well	4
Orlando Cabrera	34	R, SB	93 R, 19 SB, .334 OBP	12-15 round	Solid contributor in all categories, however, has less than .400 SLG previous 2 years.	4
Brandon Wood	24	HR	not enough info	18-21 round	Amazing power numbers in the minors. Hasn't figured out major league pitching yet.	4
Yunel Escobar	26	R, AVG	.366 OBP	12-15 round	Above average hitter with developing skills and good strike zone control who will give you a solid contribution.	4
Ryan Theriot	29	R, SB, AVG	22 SB, .387 OBP	15-18 round	No power, but good speed, great plate discipline. Expect .300 AVG with 20 SB and 90 R	4
Edgar Renteria	33	AVG	.317 OBP, .382 SLG	15-18 round	Has clearly lost a step, but has moved to NL, where he seems to play better. Strictly a backup in this stage of his career	4
Christian Guzman	31	AVG	.316 AVG, 23 BB	18-21 round	Had one of career best year last year with surprising doubles power and high average. Has poor pitch recognition, but makes contact. Might maintain AVG, but offers nothing else	4
Elvis Andrus	20	SB	No MLB stats	18-21 round	Take a chance, get some steals. Very high talent ceiling, but probably too young to approach it this year	4
Mike Aviles	28	AVG	.325 AVG/ .480 SLG	15-18 round	High contact hitter who surprised last year. Might get double digit HR again. Also eligible at 2B.	4

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