I Caught a Draft from Shoebox Legends

Which is better?  A new car or a trade bait draft?  A cookie sandwich or a trade bait draft? A talking cactus or a trade bait draft?

If you answered a trade bait draft to all three questions, you just might be a card collector or an aspiring one.  I participated in one such trade bait draft hosted by the progenitor of the 1953 Topps project, Shoebox Legends.  There were gobs of cards to choose from, including surprise bonus rounds, from all types of athletic pursuits.

I got together with my collecting war room contingent, evaluated all the prospects in the green room, and came up cards when fit together into a card voltron will run a 4.1 40 meters, bench 350, and throw a football 80 yards....but on the downside, he will be vulnerable to rain....the cardboard does not hold together when wet.

This card is from 1910 (1910 Mecca T218 to be precise): This boxing card is now the oldest card in my collection by more than 20 years.   Known as a finesse fighter during his career, he recorded 61 wins and 8 losses.

1985-86 Topps Ron Francis:  I liked Ron Francis ever since you could combine him with Lemieux and Jagr on NHL '96.  That line was devastating....Did you know he was 4th in career points in NHL history?  Seriously, he had more than Stevie Y.

Autoed 2001 Topps Archives Jim Lonborg: I have an unofficial quest to get cards of players who were on the Phillies.  This fit the bill as a cut-up multi-player card from Topps Archives that was either signed in person or TTM.  He did win the AL Cy Young Award in 1967 during the first year that an award was offered in both league, with his only season over 200 K or >7 K/9 for a full season.  Surprisingly, he had the most career wins as a Phillie.

1962-63 Topps Murray Balfour: I know almost nothing about the Original Six era of the NHL except Montreal kept on winning the Stanley Cup.  He was a member of the Million Dollar Line with Bobby Hull (when's the last time that there were great line names like that? Legion of Doom?).  He died tragically from lung cancer at the age of 28.

2008 Goudey Sport Royalty Barry Sanders: I count this as a baseball card; it came from a Goudey set.  Even so, it's my first Barry Sanders.  When I was a young pup, my brother (of Brad's Blog) and our neighbor used to play this football game called up, up, and away.....I was older, so therefore bigger and faster at that age.  They got to choose whether I was Barry Sanders (run around them) or Christian Okoye (run over them)....I think we played because we liked to get our faces in snow.

2009 Goodwin Champions Cole Hamels Jersey:  There is nothing I don't love about this cards; it was a worthy 2nd pick.  I would like to revive the Cole Hamels blog this year, but I need to actually see him pitch. Curse you work internet connection!

2007 Sweet Spot Classic Brooks Robinson Sweet Spot Auto:  This was a worthy first pick of the draft. Someday the signature will fade completely, so it's better to capture it now.  What happened with 2007 Sweet Spot compared to other years?

2008-08 UD Rookie Materials Jakub Voracek: He was one of the pieces the Flyers got from Columbus for that Jeff Carter guy (who pulled a Vince Carter and seemed to play poorly for Columbus before getting his wish and being traded to the Kings where his buddy for life Mike Richards was playing....it worked out). You heard it here first; if the Flyers make the playoffs, this will be the top Flyers point-getter in the postseason.

2007 Ultimate Star Materials Joe Mauer: Joe Mauer is racking up a HOF career.  I did not realize he led the AL in OBP last year to add to his 3 batting (average) titles.  His power will probably never again approach is 2009 high of 28 HR.  He has 37 WAR in his career right now, and there are only three catcher with >45 WAR not in the HOF, Ted Simmons, Joe Torre, and Mike Piazza.  His peak puts him in line with Bill Dickey and Mickey Cochrane.

There were many more cards to be had as the draft stretched beyond the bounds of conventional form.....

I just finished my cookie sandwich; I am ready for another draft.

Fantasy Baseball Draft Results

I completed my first draft tonight (postponed from Sunday). It's a head to head standard 5x5 league...with 14 teams. This definitely made for a rapid-fire draft where many names were crossed off my list between my duo of picks. I had the 13th pick in the odd rounds and 2nd pick in even rounds. There were 24 rounds in total. Here's my team. I think I followed my strategies, but didn't necessarily pick the right players. Potential and talent may outweigh actual fantasy contributions; we will see. The thrill of the opening of baseball season is nigh. Feel free to comment on the roster or let me know if you want to see more of the draft flow.

C-Jarrad Saltalamacchia
1B-Chris Davis
2B-Chase Utley
SS-Alexei Ramirez
3B-Alex Gordon
OF-Carlos Beltran
OF-Jacoby Ellsbury
OF-Justin Upton
OF-Travis Snider
Util-Stephen Drew
Util-Jim Thome
BN-Fred Lewis
BN-Chris Dickerson
BN-Elvis Andrus
BN-Skip Schumaker

SP-James Shields
SP-Jon Lester
RP-Mike Gonzalez
RP-Jason Motte
P-Scott Baker
P-John Danks
BN-Manny Parra
BN-Carlos Villanueva
BN-Mark Buehrle

Fantasy Baseball: A Draft Thought Exercise Part II

Here's part 2 with some more of my overall opinion and evaluation of drafting strategies and tips:

7. Speed cuts both ways. Steals are great. I love to lead the league in steals and runs. If I had my way, I would draft all leadoff hitters. Although, you shoudl try and distribute steals across the roster. Two 20-20 (HR-SB) guys are almost always better than a 10-50 guy(this was not true for Jose Cruz Jr in 2002). The key is to see how many categories they contribute in. I made that mistake and have drafted Juan Pierre and Scott Posednik too early. It's ok to take those guys late (Taveras and Bourn last year) after the 12th round. Don't consider speed and power as two sides of a coin; all categories are equal to the fantasy gods.

Based on this, for me, the most overrated person to draft is Ichiro in the 2nd round. Afterwards, he is an acceptable pick. He only contributes in runs, average, and steals, and if he has a down year like last year (<.330 BA), then he is overrated.

8. Draft for your team only. This is a little harder to explain. When choosing a player, think of how he fits in your team's lineup and most importantly, how he contributes in the given categories. Have a rough projection of how each player should do as the draft progresses and don't overpopulate power or saves categories. It's good to establish categories of strength, but depending on your league, sometimes it's difficult to find willing takers in trades. In 2004, I took David Ortiz and Jim Thome, figuring it would give me all the power I needed. The downside is that it limits daily lineup flexibility. Of course, if you could take Alex Rodriguez and David Wright in the same draft to play 3B and Util, you would (though, it's not going to happen).

9. Keep in mind the waiver wire. I always draft someone who has a high upside (like the moon, baby), but also has a lot of risk involved. This is usually the first or second person to drop, especially if they don't get playing time. Examples were Alex Gordon in 2007, Hank Blalock in 2002, Max Scherzer in 2008. This only works if your league is 12 teams or less.

10. Don't overlook veterans older than 33. Do you know who was a great draft pick last year? Mike Mussina. On average, he went in the 19th round. On the hitter side, Jermaine Dye was also great. Ken Griffey, Jr, on the other hand, was not so great. They're always there at the end of drafts. Fill in your team with some guaranteed stats if you tend to draft a lot of young kids like I sometimes do. I think I drafted Greg Maddux every year from 2003-2007; average helps your team.

11. Factors for pitchers that I look at and recommend are K/9, K/BB, WHIP, IP/start, GB/FB ratio, .OPS against, HR allowed, and their home park. Because strikeouts (K) are a category, I gravitate towards high strikeout pitchers (preferably with a low WHIP). These, of course, are the top pitchers in the league: Santana, Lincecum, Hamels, and Sabathia. Wins is a category you can't really draft for, unfortunately, but a good rule of thumb is a good team+ a good closer=an acceptable number of wins.


I also like low WHIP pitchers from the year before whose ERA was a little higher than average. These pitchers are usually later round picks and are more risky because there's not a direct correlation between a low WHIP the year before and lower ERA the next year. (A good pick was Jason Schmidt in 2004, a bad pick based on this was David Bush in 2008). The hope is that the previous year's low ERA was based on some bad luck (examine batting average on balls in play and line drive % to be sure).

Ground ball pitchers with a lower strikeout percentage are also decent plays. Think Chien Ming Wang and Fausto Carmona from the past couple years; these also have some risk because a lot of their success is based on team defense and not allowing a ton of home runs. Brandon Webb and Roy Halladay are a hybrid of the above two categories, and this is why they are top 10 fantasy pitchers.



12. Factors for hitters that I look at and recommend are .OBP, .SLG, OPS+, K/BB Ratio, Line Drive%, HR/FB %, and their home park. I like multi-skilled position players; good eye, some power, some speed. They might not always be top fantasy players, but you can build a fun, competitive lineup. My favorite players last year were B.J. Upton and Matt Kemp; you never knew what they were going to do on a given day.


Power and high contact % with a high line drive % is the perfect fantasy player since it translates to high average, home runs, RBI and runs(depending on lineup position). This is Albert Pujols in brief. He is unique, but you can find up and comers with similar skill sets if you look deeply enough. On the flip side, a high strikeout% is not a deal killer to draft (Ryan Howard, Jim Thome, Alfonso Soriano, etc). The key is to factor in the player's overall skill set, their position, and how they help you in each category.

I hope this gives some insight on what to look at and how to approach a fantasy baseball snake-style draft. I'll try a rankings exercise next time.

Fantasy Baseball: A Draft Thought Exercise: Part I

There are a few things to consider when preparing for the drafting experience.

1. Have your personal rankings ready. Most draft services have automated rankings. More detail on how to make the rankings will come in later posts.


2. Form a plan for the first two rounds based on your draft position. This is an underrated and, I believe, not oft-talked about strategy. You should have three players targeted for each of your first two picks (and even three). These picks are the least susceptible to runs and also can really dictate what direction you take the draft in the subsequent 6-7 rounds.


Let's break this down; if you draw,

picks 1-5 first round: 1st pick: rated as 4-5 category stud, 2nd/3rd pick: best 5 category player available, high average, high power outfielder, or top 5 pitcher


picks 6-12 first round: 1st pick: best 5 category player available, high average/high power guy, or Johan Santana, 2nd/3rd pick: should not choose a 2nd pitcher



In these picks, you want cornerstone players; players to build (based on their stats) your team around.


3. Do not overvalue starting pitching. Pitching is important; after all, it is half the stats you have to keep track of. Drafting too many pitchers early really does put you at a disadvantage for filling in the rest of the positions. Depending on the draft itself, I usually end up with 2-3 starting pitchers in the first 8 rounds. You woud be surprised who drops to the 8th round in a given draft. (examples include Mark Prior: 2003, Jason Schmidt: 2004, Josh Beckett: 2007)

4. Don't jump on the closer train first. All that matters with closers is saves and job security (including injury possibility). Draft accordingly. I typically draft one closer in the first 10 rounds. (Mariano Rivera in round 9 last year). Then, I target 2-3 more during the draft. If that doesn't work, target a high innings/high strikeout middle reliever approximately round 16-19.


5. Know your sleepers. What is a sleeper? A sleeper is someone who is drafted lower than their perceived value. Target the rounds in which you want your sleepers. You may have to overreach by 1-3 rounds because other people may target the same ones. For example, I wanted Josh Hamilton in the 15th round (worked in one draft, he was drafted in the 11th round in the other).

6. Catchers....meh. I'm not a big catcher fan. Only Mauer, McCann, and Martin are top guys, but their perceived value is too high (4th round) for what they ultimately give you. Take the hit at the position and draft someone who won't hurt your batting average or better yet, is eligible to play at another position.

Next time, is some more of my thoughts on drafting.....

Fantasy Baseball: Preliminary Draft Strategies Part I

These are some basic strategies that I have followed for myself over the past 8-9 years. I may not have adhered to all of them completely since sometimes I like to do experimental drafts. Some of them are really basic, and after reading them, you'd be thinking to yourself: " Who doesn't know that?" Well, you'd be surprised after all the obviously bone-headed picks that myself or other people have made that had miniscule chances of working out. Some strategies are for both types of leagues (rotisserie and head to head). Others are league-specific.

1. Know the depth charts of all the teams. Obvious alert! This is like saying know that players play baseball. With that said, plate appearances matter. A platoon guy can be useful if you are in a daily lineup change league and can pinpoint when he's playing. But the odds are that there were full-time players still available when this guy was drafted. Full-time, of course, does not mean helpful to your fantasy team.

2. Know the pitching staffs of all teams. The starting rotation is important, or at least the first four starters are. The so-called fifth starter starts less games and has a much higher ERA than the rest of the rotations. If you're using 5th starters, you better be in a 14 team or more league. For the bullpen, be familiar with the closer, the set-up guy, and the young guy with the huge fastball. Pitchers get hurt, managers get impatient. On that note...

3. Don't reach for closers. I learned my lesson the hard way on this one. Billy Wagner, how I loathe you now. Francisco Rodriguez will be picked way before he should just because of the 62 saves. Last year, I thought I followed this one pretty well. I like to take one who I think is a "safe" closer somewhere between rounds 8-11. This is not a guarantee as Huston Street owners from last year can attest. I ended up with Mariano Rivera in round 9. Then, I target two guys on teams that are not supposed to do so well. Prime examples in '08 were George Sherrill of Baltimore and Brian Wilson of San Francisco. I ended up with Wilson on practically every team. Was he a great pitcher? No. Did he get saves? Yes. I also draft a high strikeout middle reliever somewhere in rounds 16-19. They don't always pan out as eventual closers or even good pitchers...Scott Linebrink in '07 and Scot Shields in '08 come on down! But they are the first ones you can cut when you need to fill an essential roster spot or they can pay off dividends down the road. Brad Lidge in 2004 was a perfect middle reliever. 150 strikeouts, is that possible again?

4. Consider position scarcity when drafting. This is a difficult concept to grasp since there are a few nuanced layers to it.

5. League Matters: The American League is stronger than the National League. Pitchers switching leagues see a slight downturn in performance when moving to the American League. The American League East is one tough division. This does not mean draft great pitchers on these teams such as Sabathia, Halladay, Shields, etc should be devalued. Just be aware especially for sleeper picks and fringe-type players. There is also the hypothesis that greater competition breeds great success. If only all fantasy leagues were like that....

6. A player's context and situation matters. Where are they normally hitting in the lineup? Will they split time? Do they have a spot in the rotation? Do they show a severe home/road split like Ervin Santana in'06 for pitchers or name a Colorado hitter in almost any year? Is there a lefty/righty split? Is there a day/night split? Home park especially plays a role. Be wary of power hitters in San Diego, but love pitchers there. Like Philadelphia power hitters, be wary of pitchers. (These are just examples, there are relevant park factors for all statistics). This again, does not mean you should avoid Cole Hamels or Adrian Gonzalez completely because of their ball park. It means to figure it into their values accordingly.

Next time.....a mock draft thought exercise.