Cole Hamels Blog: 7/17/10

I wish I had been able to do this more because the ups and downs of Cole Hamels throughout the season make for compelling and frustrating viewing on the whole over the course of the season. Unfortunately, I have not been able to watch hardly any games in their entirety this season. It's painful living on the West Coast sometimes.

This performance was a positive, but as per the new course, he had to rely on the 2 month long impotency of the 2010 offense. Let's review his outing.

Overall Line: 7 IP, 8 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K, ND


Results Distribution: 76 of his 111 pitches went for strikes including 18 swinging strikes. He also had an uncharacteristic 14 groundballs allowed: 7 flyballs allowed. On average, Cole Hamels's GB:FB ratio is slightly less than 1.

Observations:

The umpire had a low and wide strike zone for both pitchers on this day. He was giving them 1-2 inches off the black on the outside corner against either handed hitters, reminiscent of the old "Tom Glavine" strike zone from the 1990s.

Hamels moved the ball inside and outside very well. He attacked the inner part of the plate from the start of the game with his fastball and then crossed up hitters by throwing a changeup in the same spot. There aren't many left handed batters that expect inside changeups from a lefty.

Hamels did not use his curve very much. He frankly didn't need it since his fastball and changeup were used so effectively by changing speeds and eye levels. He kept most of the Cubs hitters guessing during his outing.

The only run the Cubs scored was on a suicide squeeze; all other runners were stranded

The positive turning point in the game was the 4th inning. Aramis Ramirez led off with a walk, Marlon Byrd followed with a single after an 11 pitch at-bat. This is the point when Hamels mental struggles usually take over. Fortunately, Hamels induced Alfonso Soriano to ground into a 5-4-3 double play. His command did not recover until the next inning (he walked Soto afterwards), but no runs were scored.

Summary

This makes 7 out of 8 quality starts for Cole Hamels since he was pulled in the 1st inning on June 1st. Run support is and will continue to be an issue. The Phillies had three outs on the basepaths during the first 6 innings; that is unacceptable. Hamels has to trust in the location of his fastball and deceptiveness of his changeup to be successful; it seems he has turned a corner mentally and approach wise this month.

Until next time...

Those are the breaks: from Nachos Grande

A few months ago (time passes quickly here). Chris of Nachos Grande hosted a pair of group breaks, showcasing a variety of sets from the late '90s and early-mid 2000s. Here are some of the highlights.

Mike Schmidt and Ryan Howard from 2005 Upper Deck All-Star Classics: The prediction was correct; Ryan Howard became an all-star in 2006, 2009, and 2010. Mike Schmidt had 11 all-star appearances (12 total elections)

1997 Collector's Choice Ricky Bottalico and Lenny Dykstra: Is that the arm that saved 34 games in 1996? I would have to say no, that is his left arm.
2003 Upper Deck Honor Roll Pat Burrell and Bobby Abreu: This was a weird set, the checklist is basically composed of image variations of the other half of the set. I like the juxtaposition of the new Phillies 'P' on the card with the old Phillies 'P' from Burrell's retro uniform.

1995 Topps Stadium Club Jim Eisenreich: Show me a person who doesn't like Jim Eisenreich, and I'll show you a person that doesn't like "Field of Dreams" (and we all know what that implies)

2004 Upper Deck Vintage Roy Oswalt jersey: As a kindness, Chris included this jersey in the group break. I appreciate the sepia vintageness of the card.
2004 Upper Deck Vintage Jim Thome: So nice he even received an ovation after hitting a home run against the Phillies this year while with the Twins (of course his HR sparked a 5 run rally in the 9th inning that led the Phillies to lose the game, but the fans didn't know that at the time)
1998 Collector's Choice Griffey, Walker, and McGwire: These were the HR leaders of 1997, Griffey led the AL with 56, Walker led the NL with 49, and McGwire led everyone with 58 while being traded from the A's to the Cardinals during midseason.
1999 UD Choice Alex Rodriguez: A-rod in a simpler time.
1998 Collector's Choice Griffey and Galarraga: Remember how potent the Coors Field effect was during the pre-humidor days. You could draft any Rockies marginal player on your fantasy team and he would have 100 RBIs and high batting average (except for Jeff Cirillo)
1999 UD Choice Ken Griffey Jr: I have yet to punch this out and build the mini bobbing head.


Above are more Griffeys and A-Rods from 1998 and 1999 Collector's and UD Choice.
Lastly, 1998 Collector's Choice Starquest Edgar Martinez: Here is the greatest DH hitter so far since its institution. I think he deserves a fair shake at the Hall of Fame (I have not examined his candidacy in full yet though). Just check out those rate stats.

Side Note: Do you remember the contest when Collector's Choice first came out as a brand in 1994? The winner received a card in the next year's set pictured with Ken Griffey Jr. Anyone remember what you had to do to win the contest?

Thanks for the cards, Chris. It was very fun.

Weekend Pack Break: 2010 National Chicle two pack break

National Chicle is an interesting product to buy as individual packs. Odds are you'll at least receive some interesting player or an interesting looking card. I would not buy a box of this to chase after the set (and with the absurd amount of SPs, it discourages me further). However, on a lazy Saturday afternoon, the reveals of a couple packs keep my attention...for a little while. The inclusion of retired players does lend some gravitas and excitement, though the depictions are not always ideal. Below are the images which caught my eye the most.

Favorite presented: Pedroia
Least favorite presented: Pedroia

Guess which one is which.

Pack 1
84 Hanley Ramirez
122 Roy Halladay (Paul Lempa)


147 Jon Lester
252 Duke Snider (Monty Sheldon)


245 Whitey Ford (Jason Davies)

234 Tris Speaker
308 SP Dustin Pedroia (Monty Sheldon)

54 Yunel Escobar

Pack 2
97 Matt Kemp
87 Ted Lilly
230 Jimmie Foxx
112 Dustin Pedroia (Chris Felix)

185 Travis Snider
129 Nolan Reimold
169 Denard Span
199 Trevor Crowe (Paul Lempa)

1962 Topps Phillies List

Trying to get a headstart on next year's Topps Heritage inspiration.

17 Johnny Callison
46 Jack Baldschun
77 Tony Taylor
104 Ted Savage R.C.
111 Dallas Green
146 Don Demeter
157 Wes Covington
181 Paul Brown R.C.
212 Jim Owens
220 Roy Sievers
249 Ed Keegan R.C.
269 Bob Oldis
284 Ruben Amaro
294 Phillies Team
303 Frank Torre
328 Ken Walters
352 Frank Sullivan
374 Gene Mauch
434 Clay Dalrymple
453 Cal McLish
494 Sammy White
521 Jacke Davis R.C.
534 Tony Gonzalez
550 Art Mahaffey
571 Billy Klaus
581 Mel Roach
593 Rookie Parade Pitchers SP
w/Hamilton

2010 Phillies Mid-Year Hopes and Dreams or Can the Summer Save Your Soul

When you think of the Phillies of the silver age (2007-present), what comes to mind first? For me, it is the arcing flyballs into the stands, the resilience of numerous comeback victories in the 8th and 9th, a defense which made few errors and anchored by an ace, and savvy runners on the bases.

2010 has not been a season that has conformed to established and successful standards. It has been a trying year with injuries and unexpectedly negative performances and stretches of team-wide slumps. Even with this, the Phillies are still in thick of the playoff race at 47-40, 1.5 games behind the wild card leader (in a grouping of 6 teams) and 4.5 games behind the formidable Braves and possibly overperforming Mets. Their record is not really that different from last season. But can they really depend on a historical record of being a 2nd half team? In baseball, there are only short trends and shorter memories.


How Did We Get Here?

The Phillies have not been particularly lucky or unlucky. They are only one win behind their first order Pythagorean record (48-39) (inserting second parenthetical: the Pythagorean is a record which basically uses runs scored and runs allowed to
calculate an expected record to that point).

It seems the offense has been struggling. They did score 3 runs or less in half their games. Taken as an aggregate, though, the offense splits show a .756 OPS in April (5.2 runs/game), a .752 OPS in May (4.3 runs/game), a .733 OPS in June (5.0 runs/game), and a .672 OPS thus far in July (4.1 runs/game). Their run-scoring capabilities have not necessarily corresponded with their performance or their record. This statement of course does not take into account game situations. The surprising part of their offensive performance has been that they have been shutout 8 times this year, beating the total of 7 for all of last year and matching 2008's total as well.

The pitching has been anchored by a league best total in innings pitched by the starters, though the bullpen ERA does not reflect the performance that such rest should afford them over the course of the season. The pitching staff has been weak against lefties (.805 OPS allowed) and have shown a decided vulnerability on the road (.780 OPS allowed, 4.3 runs/game). April and June were the biggest trouble. Hopefully, with the return of the full complement of relievers and the establishment of the starting rotation as a more consistent force, these struggles will cease.



Where Are They Going?

They are astride the broad shoulders of Roy Halladay for the pitchers and Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins for the batters. However, unlike basketball, three players does not a winning team make. The following need to happen for the dreams of a 4th consecutive division title come true.

1. The bullpen has to take advantage of its matchups
2.Jaime Moyer needs to continue his ways.

3. Victorino and Rollins have to increase their OBP
4. Ibanez has to improve or make way for the next LF inhabitant
5. Ryan Howard needs to enhance his power stroke
6. Joe Blanton needs to not be terrible or JA Happ needs to replace him

7. Cole Hamels needs to continue his streak of quality starts.
8. Chase Utley has to return at full strength in 6 weeks

9. Ruben Amaro has to not be limited in his thinking about only wanting to trade for pitching.

Here's to the second half, it's going to be an exciting ride. All the divisions leaders have leads of less than 5 games. It's time for the trading deadline hour followed by the push for the playoffs and the privilege to play in the swirling winds of October

1961 Topps Phillies List

Here's the formal list-Update 12/13/10: 3 to go!
3 John Buzhardt

20 Robin Roberts

59 Jim Woods R.C.

78 Lee Walls

93 Tony Gonzalez

103 Ruben Amaro

111 Jack Meyer

144 Jim Coker all-star rookie

154 Bobby Del Greco

179 Joe Koppe

202 Al Neiger R.C.

219 Gene Mauch

234 Ted Lepcio

262 Tony Curry all-star rookie

281 Frank Sullivan

299 Clay Dalrymple

316 Bobby Gene Smith

341 Jim Owens

359 Dallas Green

377 Ruben Gomez

394 Ken Walters

411 Tony Taylor

433 Art Mahaffey

468 Johnny Callison

479 Jim Konstanty 1950 MVP NL

491 Phillies Team

502 Clarence Coleman R.C.

530 Bobby Malkmus

558 Don Ferrarese

569 Frank Herrera AS

My First Topps Million Card Giveaway Result

I have only bought four packs of 2010 Topps this year, so I feel fortunate to have pulled one Million Card Giveaway card...at least for the thrill of receiving the unknown. I placed the card code in the box, and I was lucky to pull this:



1958 Topps Harry Hanebrink

I was happy. What's the over/under on unrealistic trade offers for this one through the site?

Junk Wax Giveaway at a Pack to Be Named Later

Leave a comment at A Pack To Be Named Later to win an undisclosed amount of junk wax (because that's what you have to guess). Just imagine all the fun you can have discovering unopened cards in wax, mylar, and foil packs. You have until July 13 to enter. Good luck!

Group Break Cards from The Sandlot

One of the newer guys on the blogger block, Joe from The Sandlot, held a completely free group break a few moons ago. I was lucky enough for both of us to claim the Phillies (Joe is a Mets fan.) There was a bevy of unique and interesting boxes busted for the foil and cardboard treasure within. Here are some of my favorites that I received.

1996 EX-L Gregg Jefferies, Ricky Botalicco, and Darren Daulton: I really liked the 1995 E-motion set. The colored framed borders on this incarnation lent a certain degree of gravitas to the heavyweight emotions of "crashing", "fearless", and "pursuing". Though Darren Daulton has lately had dreams of being pursued of gigantic, doom-seeking numbers spelling "2012".

The set did drop the adjectives in later versions (EX-2000, EX-2001, etc), though the design was still a strong selling point.
1997 Metal Universe Mickey Morandini and Scott Rolen: Ultra-futuristic, comic style, avant-garde, cartoony marks distinguish this set from 1996-1998. They're not in this silvery tone though. Scanning metallic sheened objects is quite the ordeal if you want to showcase the vibrancy. Rolen looks like he's been grabbed by the Leviathan.
2002 Upper Deck Vintage: Nick Punto/Carlos Silva Rookies: This duo of rookies was traded for Eric Milton before the 2004 season. Punto went onto cult hero status in Minnesota and Silva became a decent pitcher in Minnesota before getting a big payday with the Mariners and losing his sinker. He was then traded to the Cubs for Milton Bradley before this season and has seemed to have found the drop again. Not a good trade. Though I do like the 1971 Topps homage of this set.
2003 Topps Chrome Gold Refractor Tomas Perez: You can blame him as one of the culprits for the spreading of the "pies in the face" meme. As a utility infielder (who played nearly every position except catcher)
2003 Topps Chrome Placido Polanco: This was the first go-round with Polanco, when he played 2B, and then was pushed out for the beginning of Chase Utley, though he could have easily been moved to 3B to push out Dave Bell. Instead, he was traded for Ugueth Urbina (who I think ended up in prison after that season) to continue Ed Wade's fetish of trading for relief pitchers during the season.
1998 SPx Curt Schilling: All the base cards were numbered in this set (I think this one was numbered out of 9000 or something like that) and there were five subsets all numbered differently. In addition, there were parallels (Spectrum and Radiance) that had lower numbering throughout all the subsets with numbers ranging from 1-4500. It was a layered mess; I wonder who tried collecting this set. The cards look nice though.

Thanks Joe. Let me know if you need any Mets cards.

1961 Topps Phillies Team Set Chase Part 2

Here are more cards I have acquired to collect the 1961 Topps Phillies team set rather than going for 2010 Heritage. First and second impressions: they were not a good team.

Jim Woods: # of years on Phillies-2 (1960-1961), Best Season as a Phillie (1961): .229/.296/.417 (89 OPS+) with 2 HR and 9 RBI
Joe Koppe: # of years on Phillies-2+ (1959-1961), Best Season as a Phillie (1959): .261/.327/.386 (89 OPS+) with 7 HR, 7 3B, 68 R and 28 RBI.
Jack Meyer: # of years on Phillies-7 (1955-1961), Best Season as a Phillie (1955): 6-11 with 3.43 ERA, led the league with 16 saves, 97 K in 110 IP.
Lee Walls: # of years on Phillies-2 (1960-1961), Best Season as a Phillie (1961): .280/.329/.425 (100 OPS+) with 8 HR and 30 RBI
Jim Coker: # of years on Phillies-4 (1958-1962), Best Season as a Phillie (1960): .214/.289/.329 (69 OPS+) with 6 HR and 34 RBI
Bobby Del Greco: # of years on Phillies-3 (1960-1961, 1965), Best Season as a Phillie (1960): .237/.355/.417 (111 OPS+) with 10 HR, 26 RBI, and 54 BB.
Phillie Team Card: I like the design element of the solid color background.


More to come as the chase emboldens the seeker.

My All-Star Rosters....

.....designed for maximum retail value.

Every year there are debates about the all-stars. Fans pick starters, players pick reserves, managers pick pitchers and more reserves, and every team gets represented...like T-ball. Unfortunately, this decides home-field advantage for the World Series. This aspect should not be a part, especially when the games aren't really being played to win, but to get everyone on the roster (except one pitcher) onto the field at some point or another.

I have decided to pick my all-stars based on who I want to see the play the most. I am a fan after all. I'm also going to throw out the one player per team rule and exclude currently injured players.

AL

Catcher
Starter: Joe Mauer
Reserves: Carlos Santana and Mike Napoli

1st Base
Starter: Miguel Cabrera
Reserves: Justin Morneau and Paul Konerko

2nd Base
Starter: Robinson Cano
Reserves: Ian Kinsler

Shortstop
Starter: Derek Jeter
Reserves: Elvis Andrus

3rd Base
Starter: Evan Longoria
Reserves: Michael Young and Alex Rodriguez

Outfield and DH
Starters: Josh Hamilton, Ichiro, Carl Crawford, Vladimir Guerrero
Reserves: Brennan Boesch, Alex Rios, Nelson Cruz, Brett Gardner, Franklin Gutierrez

Pitchers
David Price, Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, Justin Verlander, Jered Weaver, Phil Hughes, Jon Lester, Felix Hernandez, Naftali Feliz, Mariano Rivera


NL
Catcher
Starter: Brian McCann
Reserves: Buster Posey and Miguel Montero

1st Base
Starter: Albert Pujols
Reserves: Joey Votto and Adrian Gonzalez

2nd Base
Starter: Brandon Phillips
Reserves: Dan Uggla and Martin Prado

Shortstop
Starter: Hanley Ramirez
Reserves: Jimmy Rollins and

3rd Base
Starter: David Wright
Reserves: Scott Rolen and Ryan Zimmerman

Outfield and DH
Starters: Matt Holliday, Ryan Braun, Justin Upton
Reserves: Colby Rasmus, Andrew McCutchen, Andre Ethier, Jayson Werth

Pitchers
Roy Halladay, Ubaldo Jimenez, Josh Johnson, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Tim Lincecum, Tommy Hanson, Jaime Moyer, Roy Oswalt, Jonathan Broxton

Who do you think would win this match-up of these theoretical rosters?

In Dire Straits: Phillies Edition

Today, came the announcement that Chase Utley had thumb surgery and will probably not return for 8 weeks, which basically means September in baseball time. Utley's been known to have superhuman healing powers before (see hip surgery from a couple years ago: projected healing time of 8 months vs. actual healing time of 6 months), but the thumb is an stubborn, slow-healing appendage (I'm speaking from my own experience here).

From a pessimist's point of view, this is a possibly team-debilitating injury. Granted, Utley was not playing up to his previous high levels, but he was still the best hitting 2B in the NL (Cano surpassed him in the AL the year) and definitely the best fielding 2B (by many metrics). And in a normal situation, Polanco would cover at 2B. And there's the rub, this is not a normal situation; the injury demons have also accursed Placido Polanco.

He has been afflicted with a sore elbow since April 21, and as a result, has been subjected to extended rest since shorter periods of rest did not lead to healing. This now leaves two key positions on the diamond (2B and 3B) and in the lineup (2nd and 3rd) woefully undermanned.

Here are the potential replacements with some comments:

Gregg Dobbs: He can only play against right handed pitchers and even then he has become a below-average hitter. Combine that with a below average glove at 3B, and you have a non-viable replacement.

Wilson Valdez:31 year old utility man who has a good glove reputation (not sure if it's true or not). Definitely does not hit for power (though 2 HRs in 3 games belie that fact) nor average.

Juan Castro: Much older utility man with undeserved good glove reputation. Does not have enough range to be an above-average shortstop nor arm strength for a 3B. He has less than a .500 OPS this year...um, not good.

Brian Bocock: Minor league utility man who had a .470 OPS in AAA. I'm not sure how he will contribute.

As you can see not one of them can lay claim as being at least an average major league starter. I'm afraid that the Phillies have reached a turning point for the season with the aforementioned injuries ( and this does not include the losses of Ruiz, Happ, Durbin, Bastardo, Madson, long stretches without Rollins) unless someone on the team steps up large. Maybe we'll find out the inner workings of the mind of Dane Sardinha or maybe Jaime Moyer is the guru they were searching for.